I’ll use this page to attempt to keep an up to date tally of the pluses and minuses of Brexit as they emerge. Of course, the full picture will take a long time to emerge – Chairman Mao reputedly answered a question about the impact of the French Revolution on socialism with “It’s far to early to tell”. However, the scores are already beginning to pile up. Where are we so far?
Latest update Sunday 9 July 2016.
Minuses from Brexit so far
- Pound down from $1.49 to around $1.29 and €1.17 – this is not all bad news, particularly if you are an exporter, but foreign holidays will be more expensive this year, much to the chagrin of the Daily Mail
- Credit rating reduced from AAA to AA at all agencies (so more expensive borrowing)
- Bank and building shares down dramatically (but other shares up – see below)
- Conservative Party still leaderless, contest between Theresa May and Andrea Leadsom is showing every sign of turning into another ‘sensible vs Trumpish’ contest. Will the Trumpish option win again?
- Labour Party shadow cabinet launches challenge against their own leader. Today’s question is whether Jeremy Corbyn gets to be on the ballot without being nominated by his MPs (no chance).
- Sharp increases in racial hate crimes reported post-vote and EU residents feel uncomfortable as racists are emboldened
- The promises of Leave campaigners (at least, those who are left) turn to dust. Vote Leave Watch is set up to monitor the situation.
- Business start to announce delays in planned projects – eg Heathrow runway, Hitachi power stations, and moving production abroad (Lush)
- Warnings of growing staff shortages in NHS (already)
- Tech sector warns of long-term damage
- Science researchers in funding worries post-Brexit
- Scotland lining up new independence bid – even Scottish Tories are making noises about increased federalism
- Sinn Fein demanding vote on unification of Ulster
- Ulster Unionist grandee and former MP Lord Kilclooney invites Ireland to reconsider their EU membership to avoid land border
- Donald Trump hails Brexit as ‘a great victory’
- Mugabe administration in Zimbabwe looking forward to better links with EU now that ‘colonial imperialists’ have left
- Radical right demanding their turn to have a go in France, Netherland, Italy
- Diminished view of UK in rest of Europe – unreliable, self-centred, good riddance
Pluses from Brexit so far
- FTSE 100 index down from 6340 to 5982 and then up to 6590- largely down to devalued Pound.
- Boris Johnson and Michael Gove both stabbed in race for PM – but they didn’t really want Brexit anyway, it seems
- Nigel Farage resigns as UKIP leader – to be followed by his deputy Paul Nuttall and Chairman Steve Crowther. Is this the beginning of the dismantling of the party and a return to a Leadsom-lead Tory rightwing stronghold?
- Signs of possible realignment of the internationalist outward-looking centre of British politics
- Growing signs of a ‘Notyexit’ – the Article 50 will not be triggered until 2017 at the earliest, and very possibly never, when an actual assessment is made of the possible outcomes. Court cases are lining up to establish whether Parliament needs to be involved in triggering article 50. But what damage is being done in the meantime?